Crude inventories rose 2.3 million barrels in the week to Jan. 13. However, the expectations were for an increase of 342,000 barrels.

Chinese data showed upbeat Q4 GDP, which also added to the upside oil. Reports of record Chinese demand, evidenced by Crude throughput hitting the highest level in history for the year at 10.79 million bpd, strengthened the ongoing bullish momentum.

In an interview with Sputnik, the OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo noted that the OPEC deal will bring stability to global oil markets.

He said that “there is a great opportunity for all the stakeholders, including the oil and gas industry, to solidify this platform and insure that it continues to perform the stabilization role in the best interests of the industry as well as the global economy".

OIL page 001 1

The Bank of Canada (BOC)  announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.BOC projects that Canada's real GDP will grow by 2.1 per cent in both 2017 and 2018. This implies a return to full capacity around mid-2018, in line with October's projection.Inflation in Canada has been lower than anticipated since October, mainly because of declines in food prices. Measures of core inflation are below 2 per cent, reflecting material excess capacity in the economy.

Bank of Canada governor Stephen S. Poloz says a rate cut remains on the table if downside risks materialize. He highlighted unknowns around U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies in a rate decision and indicated he’s prepared to cut interest rates if new protectionist measures derail the nation’s economy. The central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent and said “significant uncertainties” from the U.S. are weighing on the economic outlook. In contrast to the United States, Canada’s economy continues to operate with material excess capacity. While employment growth has remained firm, indicators still point to significant slack in the labour market. The resource sector’s adjustment to past commodity price declines appears to be largely complete, but negative wealth and income effects will persist. 

January 18CAD page 001

The British pound surged after Theresa May’s speech, in which she set out for the first time that her government is determined to make a clean break from the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May said she would give Parliament a vote on the final Brexit deal.

Theresa May offered her most explicit vision of Britain’s future relationship with its European Union neighbors. May pledged to quit the single market and instead seek a customs agreement with the bloc to deliver “a smooth and orderly Brexit.” Theresa May confirmed that the Brexit deal will be subject to parliamentary approval, sparking a rally in the pound. British pound has built on gains seen after hotter than expected UK inflation data earlier. Cable is presently up by 2.6% at six day highs above 1.2340, putting in some distance from yesterday’s three-month lows that were seen just less than 1.2000.

January 17GBP page 001

The U.S. Dollar turned lower because the lack of details of the President-Elects administration's plans for economic stimulus.

The Dollar Index received a beating on Wednesday evening with prices turning bearish during trading on Thursday. A decisive breakdown and daily close below 101.00 could open a path lower towards 100.00.

Donald Trump's news conference failed to provide the clarity on future fiscal policies. The news conference covered topics about the Russian hacking reports, Trump's separation of his business empire and repeated criticism of the media. Trump uncertainty keeps investors on edge.

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The USD/JPY currency pair dropped at 115.72, its lowest since December 14th, after the market rushed to sell the greenback following the release of FOMC Minutes. The new leitmotif of the US Central Bank is showing that uncertainty.
US data came mixed in the hints for the Non-Farm Payrolls. ADP had a significant slowdown in job gains in December: 153K against 215K in November in the private sector. Another worry came from the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The services sector is the largest in the US, and the top figure was a beat. The employment component fell by 4.4 points , a worrying sign for the Non-Farm Payrolls.

January 5 page 001

Investors began 2017 in a confident mood after solid manufacturing activity data in Europe and China. 

Banking stocks jumped almost 3 percent. Shares of the newly mergedBPM bankin Italy were at the top of the European index, up by more than 9.8 percent in afternoon trade.

French consumer prices increased 0.8 percent year-on-year, driven essentially by an increase in energy prices. French inflation reached its highest level since May 2014. Inflation across the eurozone is expected to edge up this year on the fading effect of last year’s energy price falls. Forecasts from the ECB show average inflation will fall short of the ECB’s target of just below 2 per cent in 2019 at 1.7 per cent.

January 3 page 001

Gold extended its recovery and rose on Thursday for the fourth consecutive session, as the dollar and U.S. bond yields declined following weaker than expected economic data. Spot gold hit $1,150.26 an ounce, its highest since December 14, and was up 1.1 percent at $1,155.54. U.S. gold futures rose 1.3 percent to $1,156.60 an ounce.

However, growing market expectations of further rate-hike action by the US Federal Reserve in 2017 may limit any near-term sharp appreciation for the Gold.

Gold fell more than 8 percent in November as U.S. Treasury yields rose after Donald Trump's election led to speculation his commitment to infrastructure spending would spur growth.

December 29aur page 001

The euro dropped by one percent to $1.0406 on Thursday. This is the lowest level against the dollar since early 2003.


Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates for the first time this year and forecast a steeper path for borrowing costs in 2017. According to the Federal Reserve officials, inflation expectations have increased “considerably” and the labor market is tightening.

Consumer spending is “rising moderately”, job gains have been solid and business investment “has remained soft,” the Fed said. New projections show central bankers expect three quarter-point rate increases in 2017, up from the two seen in the previous forecasts in September.

December 15 page 001

U.S. equities traded higher on Tuesday, as investors kept an eye on Federal Reserve’s monetary policy nextmeeting.

The Dow also hit a new intraday high after Tuesday's open, briefly rising more than 100 points, with IBM contributing the most gains. Some analysts think that Dow will rise soon above 20,000. The S&P 500 also hit a new intraday record, rising 0.4 percent, with information technology gaining 1.3 percent to lead all sectors higher.

The Nasdaq composite outperformed, advancing 0.9 percent to a new all-time high. Speculation that fiscal easing in the U.S. will drive growth is pushing investors into stocks. With the market assigning 100 percent odds to a Fed rate hike Wednesday, investors see a two-in-three chance of additional tightening by June next year.


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Oil rose by as much as 6.5 percent on Monday to an 18-month high. OPEC and some of its rivals reached their first deal since 2001 to reduce output to try to tackle global oversupply and boost prices.
U.S. crude futures were up $1.75, or 3.4 percent, at $53.25 a barrel. They earlier touched $54.51, also a high going back to July 2015.
Producers from outside OPEC agreed to reduce output by 558,000 bpd, short of the target of 600,000 bpd but still the largest contribution by non-OPEC ever. "The observation of the OPEC-11 and non-OPEC 11 production cuts is required to sustainably support - oil prices to our 1H17 WTI price forecast of $55 a barrel " Goldman Sachs said.
According to Barclays, there are too many moving parts for OPEC's new policy to be sustainable in the long term.

December 12 page 001

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