The European Central Bank will decide at its Dec. 8 meeting on the continuation of its stimulus program, President Mario Draghi said on Monday, quashing speculation about a delay in the decision to January. As a consequence, euro fell on Monday at 1.0563


Mario Draghi said in the European Parliament that the bank's leadership "will assess the various options that would allow the governing council to preserve the very substantial degree of monetary accommodation necessary" to raise inflation toward the bank's goal of just under 2 percent.
The council will discuss whether to extend its 1.77 trillion euros ($1.87 trillion) in bond purchases, a form of stimulus that pumps 80 billion euros per month into the economy.

November 28 page 001

A strong dollar attracted fresh selling pressure around the precious metal. The Gold plunged after the release of stronger-than-expected US durable goods orders. Gold fell below $1190, for the first time since February. US durable goods orders surpassed the most optimistic estimates and recorded a growth of 4.8% for October. The core durable goods orders (excluding automobile items) recorded a better-than-expected growth of 1.0%.

 

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP rising at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. The economy grew at a 2.9 percent pace in the July-September period. Gold could fall further from here, with analysts having previously highlighted a technical resistance level around $1,170 as a target. The strong economic growth outlook is likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.  

November 23gold page 001

Yields are rising in the US as investors leave Fixed Income for assets like Equities.This is a consequence of Trump's indication to implement tax cuts and lift fiscal spending.

According to a survey of the Wall Street Journal, taken after the election, the unemployment rate could fall further (to 4.7% at the end of 2018), real GDP could rise more (to 2.3% by 2018), inflation is seen at 2.4% by 2018 and the 10-year yield is seen at 3%.

The price is very bullish on USD at this momet. For example, a potential target for  the USD/JPY currency pair is 110.00 in the next period. If we see a reverse around 110.00, we may consider a counter trend opportunity towards 107.00.

November 15yen page 001

The dollar surged to an 11-month high against the most of the currencies on Monday. China's yuan lost another third of a percent. The yuan fell to its weakest since 2010, before the launch of its offshore market. The japanese yen and the euro both sank by about another full percentage point to multi-month lows. The euro fell to $1.0726, its lowest since the beginning of the year. The dollar index rose 1 percent to 100.04, its highest since December last year.

These moves are because of expectations that Trump's administration would both boost spending and put more restrictions on trade. These steps could put an end to the low inflation which has dominated the past decade.

The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to a 10-month high of 2.3 percent in European trade. "Investors are still struggling to cope with all the implications the new U.S. president may have for the world's economy. The interest rate is expected to increase at the Fed's final policy meeting of the year in mid-December”, said Marius Ghisea, President and CEO of MS Capital Consulting. 

November 14USD page 001

The USD/JPY currency pair remains bullish, while the improvement in prospects for global growth is set to deliver JPY weakness.


“The U.S. dollar is strong against the major world currencies, touching its highest level in more than two weeks, hovering just below levels last seen in February. The Japanese yen is weak, underperforming with a 1.2% decline from Wednesday’s close. This currency has fallen at levels last seen ahead of the Bank of Japan disappointment from July”, said Marius Ghisea, President and CEO of MS Capital Consulting.


Despite this strong volatility, a rate hike is possible. This would mark the first rate move by the Fed since December last year.

November 10 page 001

Trump’s victory doesn’t appear to be an obstacle for a rate hike from the Fed.

Donald Trump’s balanced approach in his speech after his victory may suggest that he will  allow the Fed to get on with their job. This includes hiking interest rates. The Fed doesn’t need to refrain from hiking interest rates to protect from stock market declines.

Financial markets are reacting to the triumph of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election.The US dollar has been recovered ever since Trump looked like a winner. The EUR/USD currency pair has fallen below EMA 200 (1.1047) on the daily chart. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair reaches 1.0935.

November 9 page 001

The NZD/JPY currency pair is sensitive to swings in broad-based market sentiment trends. This pair is responsive to economic news that shapes expectations for Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy. Next week, Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut the rate. The rate cut is expected by most of the analysts and priced in.

GBPUSD H1 11 03 2016 1637November 8 page 002
Investors tend to favor carry trades at times of optimism about global economic performance and they avoid them at times of market stress. According to the 1 hour chart, the NZD/JPY has already risen around 200 pips these days. The price has reached 77.30 and it is above resistance 2.
According to the daily chart, the price is at Fibo 0.61 and it may fall from this level. If the price doesnt fall from this level, it may rise until Fibo 0.76 (79.40).

U.S. stocks opened higher after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said its fresh review of Hillary Clinton’s emails won’t lead to charges. 

According to the FBI Director James Comey, the bureau had "not changed its conclusions," reached in July, on Clinton's private email server. The news triggered a relief rally globally, with Asian and European indexes gaining, the dollar strengthening and gold selling off.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average quickly rose more than 250 points at the open, with Goldman Sachs contributing the most gains to the tune of 25 points. The S&P 500 advanced more than 1 percent. The Nasdaq composite outperformed, rising 1.5 percent.

According to the most market analysts if Hillary wins, this is good for stocks, if Trump wins, this is bad for stocks. "But, anyone who thinks deeper than this knows that the response is going to be much more nuanced. Ask any owner of a healthcare, financial or defense stock," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group in a note.

November 7 page 001

The MPC voted unanimously to keep the key rate unchanged. It maintains the gilt-purchase target at 435 billion pounds and the corporate-bond purchase target at 10 billion pounds.


The Bank of England is ready to ease monetary policy following the inflation developments. It drops its earlier intention to cut the key rate to a new record low, according to the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney.


BOE officials have ‘limited tolerance’ to above-target Consumer price index. The central bank now sees consumer-price growth rising above its 2 percent goal early next year. It said inflation will be at 2.5 percent in late 2019, the biggest three-year overshoot it’s ever predicted. Mark Carney declined to identify if there is a rate that officials would consider too high.

November 3 page 001

WTI Crude Oil have dropped to nearly 13.5% in 10 trading days, thanks to the Energy Information Administrator’s largest build in U.S. inventories since 1982.


The domestic crude supplies rose by 14.4 million barrels last week, according to the recent U.S. EIA report.


OPEC reached in September a preliminary agreement in order to cut production, probably by 200,000 to 700,000 barrels per day. The main reason was to pump up prices by removing the unwanted barrels from the market. According to the OPEC, the details of the plan will be completed until its official Nov. 30 meeting.

November 2 page 001

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