June 19UCHFDA page 001 1

The USD/CHF currency pair might fall in the next period, based on Trump's contentious battles with China and the European Union over proposed tariffs.

This “trade war” might affect growth and inflation in the United States.
The downtrend is indicated also technically. According to the daily chart, the price already reached a double top. A potential target will be Fibo 0.61 (0.9713).
According to the weekly chart, the USD/CHF pair might reach 0.9450 area in the long term, and then should be a retracement.

The most important data of this week:

June 20
- FED- Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at ECB Annual Forum in Sintra ( Portugal)
June 21
- SNB Interest Rate (-0.75% expectation); ( -0.75% previous)

UCHFWA page 001 1

June 11EURUSDdaily


The EUR/USD currency pair might rise in the medium term, according to the daily chart. The RSI oscillator is 50, and this indicates a start for a bullish uptrend. A potential target might be 1.2014, where is Fibo 0.23 on the daily chart. Longer-term, EURUSD reaching the 1.2500 area seems just a matter of time. This pair will rise on Thursday, if Mario Draghi is ready to end the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program.

The most important data of this week:

June 12
US CPI MoM (+0.2% expectation); ( +0.2% previuous)
YoY (+2.2% expectation); ( +2.1% previous)
June 13
FOMC rate decision (+2% expectation); ( +1.75% previous)
June 14
ECB rate decision unchanged 0.00%
June 15
Eurozone CPI MoM (+0.5% expectation); ( +0.3 % previous)
YoY (+1.1% expectation); ( +1.1% previous)

EURweekly

GOLDD


Gold price fell during the course of May and is expected to drift lower in June. According to the daily chart, the price might fall below 1276 (Fibo 0.38). The downtrend is indicated also on the weekly chart, because the RSI oscillator stays below 50. The price level reached EMA 200 on the weekly chart. The Gold downtrend is underway in the near term.
However, Gold might go up in the medium-long term. A possible breakthrough is at 1312 (Fibo 0.23), according to the daily chart.

GOLDW

 

SP500daily page 001 1

 

The S&P 500 index might fall in the next period, according to the daily chart. The RSI oscillator is above 50 on the daily chart, and this indicates a price correction in the short term. A potential target is 0.38 FIBO (2652.70). However, the S&P 500 index will continue its long-term uptrend. According to the weekly chart, the RSI stays above 50, and this is considered a bullish trend.

The most important data of this week:
May 30
US ADP - (+190k expectation); ( +204k previous)
June 1
US NFP - ( +190k expectation); ( +164k previous)
US Unemployment rate - (+3.9% expectation); ( +3..9% previous)

GBPUSDdaily page 001 1

 

The GBP/USD currency pair will continue to fall in the next period, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. This pair fellduring most of the session on Monday, reaching down towards the 1.33 level. The price might reach 1.3265 in the medium term, where is Fibo 0.61 on the daily chart.

The recent UK’s data also suggest that the downtrend will remain intact. The inflation of the UK was below expectations. The Bank of England had put back plans for an increase in interest rates after the weaker than expected performance of the economy in early 2018.

The most important data of this week:

May 23

UK CPI YoY- (+2.5% expectation); ( +2.5% previous)

             MoM (+0.5% expectation); ( +0.1% previous)

US FOMC minutes 

May 24

UK Retail Sales- YoY (+0.4% expectation); (-1.1% previous)

                         MoM (+0.4% expectation); (-0.5% previous)

May 25 

UK GDP- YoY  (+1.2% expectation); (+1.2$ previous)

                  QoQ (+0.1% expectation);  (+0.1% previous)

GBPUSDweekly page 001

 

USDJPYdaily page 0012

The USD/JPY pair might rise in the next period, according to our technical analysis. The RSI remains in the bullish zone on the daily chart. The price might rise slower above 110.62 (Fibo 0.61). However, the price will continue to fall in the medium-long term, according to the weekly chart.

For personalized analysis and daily signals, contact us at office@forexcapitalexperts.com.

The most important data of this week:

May 15
Japan GDP QoQ – (unchaged estimated); ( +0.4% previous)
YoY - (-0.1% estimated); ( +1.6% previous)
May 17
Japan CPI YoY - (+0.7% estimated ); (+1.1% previous)

USDJPYweekly page 0012

 

USDCHFdaily page 001

The USD/CHF currency pair will fall in the next period, according to the daily chart. The RSI oscillator (83.26) already shows an overbought market and indicates a future price correction in the short term. However, according to the weekly chart, the pair might continue its uptrend in the long term. A potential target is 1.02, according to our analysis.
The fundamental analysis also indicates the strength of the U.S. dollar. Federal Reserve officials saw an economy growing at a strong pace and inflation moving up as well, justifying continued interest rate increases. On the other hand, there is a low inflation in Switzerland. Consumer prices in Switzerland increased 0.8 percent year-on-year in April of 2018, slightly below market expectations of a 0.9 percent gain.

The most important data of this week for this pair:
May 8
Swiss Unemployment rate (+2.9% expectation); (+2.9% previous)
May 10
US CPI YoY (+2.2% expectation); ( +2.1% previous)

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USDCADdaily page 001

 

The USD/CAD pair might raise in the next period, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. A potential target is 1.3124 (0.61 Fibo) on the daily chart.
The interest rate is critical in determining the economic outlook. In the U.S., the current federal funds rate is 1.75 percent. The Federal Reserve said it will raise rates to 2 percent in 2018, 2.5 percent in 2019 and 3 percent in 2020.

On the other hand, the economy of Canada performed slightly weaker than the bank expected in the first three months of 2018, the Central Bank of Canada said. The bank said weakness in the housing market plus trade uncertainties are weighing on the economy's prospects. However, it expects a boost from increased foreign trade, plus higher wages for Canadians.

The main economic data of this week:
May 1
Canada GDP MoM (+0.3% expectation); ( -0.1% previous)
May 2
FOMC rate decision (+1.75% expectation); ( +1.75% previous)
May 4
US NFP (+194k expectation); (+102k previous)
Unemployment rate (+4% expectation); ( +4.1% previous)

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EURUSDdaily page 0012

The EUR/USD pair might rise in the medium term, based on the optimistic European economy data. The EU economy as a whole is enjoying a period of positive momentum as growth spreads across all member states. GDP grew 2.5% last year, with economies of Eastern European countries such as Romania, Poland, and Slovakia doing particularly well. For this year, the economy will also beat expectations by growing 2.1% both in the euro area and the 28 member states.
The main economic data of this week:
April 26
ECB rate decision (0.00% unchanged expectation); (0.00% previous)
April 27
France GDP QoQ (+0.4% expectation); ( +0.7% previous)
YoY (+2.3% expectation); ( +2.5% previous)
Germany Unemployment Change (-15k expectation);( -19k previous)
Unemployment Rate (+5.3% expectation); (+5.3% previous)
US GDP QoQ (+2.0% expectation); (+2.3% previous)

EURUSDweekly page 0012

AUDUSDdaily page 001

 

The AUD/USD currency pair may rise in the short term. According to the daily chart, the price reached EMA 50 and EMA 200. The next level might be 0.76 Fibo (0.7899 price level).
However, there is a highly probability for this pair to enter in a downtrend in the medium and long term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. In this case, the price might hit 0.50 Fibo (0.7637 level) and 0.38 Fibo (0.7520 level).
The main economic data of this week:
April 17
RBA minutes
US Housing starts MoM (+1268k expectation: +2.6% expectation ); (+1236k previous: -7% previous)
US Industrial Production (+0.4% expectation); (+1.1% previous)
April 19
- Australia Employment Change (+20k expectation); (+17k previous)
Unemployment Rate (5.5% expetaction); (+5.6% previous)

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