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July 30GBPdaily page 001 1

The GBP/USD pair might rise in the medium term, according to the daily and weekly charts. A potential medium-term target is 1.3605 (Fibo 0.50).The macroeconomic data also indicate an increase for this pair.

Most analysts agree that the Bank of England will increase its interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%. That means that the spread between the U.S. interest rates and UK interest rates will fall.

Moreover, the U.S. economy is at risk of overheating, as the U.S. GDP grew 4.1% in the second quarter of this year, the fastest pace of growth since late 2014. Net exports contributed 1.06 percentage point to the pace of growth, the most since 2013.

Donald Trump, speaking last Friday at the White House, celebrated the report and said the economy is on track to reach an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent.

The most important data of this week:
August 2
BOE rate +0.75% expectation (+0.50% previous)
August 3
US NFP +185k expectation (+202k previous)
US Unemployment rate +3.9% expectation ( +4.0% previous)

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