The AUD/USD currency pair may fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The price is below EMA 200 and EMA 50, and the RSI is below 50 on the weekly chart. MACD crosses into negative territory, on the daily chart. A potential medium-term target might be 0.6744.
The U.S. dollar will continue to appreciate, and AUD is more likely to depreciate further. Domestic economy in Australia remains weak, and the housing market continues to deteriorate. There is a high probability that Australia will be the first G10 central bank to start cutting rates this year.
The most important data from this week:
Australia GDP 4Q (-0.1% expectation); ( +0.4% previous)
RBA rate 1.5% expectation ( 1.5% previously)
US NFP +187K expectation (+296K previous)
Unemployment rate 3.9% expectation ( 4.0% previous)