EURUSD is fairly representative of the action across USD pairs as we watch whether this extension lower below the local 1.1848 pivot holds into the weekend. A solid rally back above is the first inkling that this late USD rally faces neutralization. And the kind of support from US treasury yields and rising US real yields that was in place back into the significant end-of-March low of 1.1704 are largely absent this time, with only support for the USD from the shift in Fed expectations, a shift that has faded more than a bit on today’s mixed US jobs report. A solid close above 1.1900 in the coming session or two could set the stage for the sense that the downside risk here has been avoided for now, likely reflected in other USD pairs as well in that event.
May have simply witnessed a significant position squaring by USD shorts as so much energy has come out of the inflation narrative recently, with the USD wrapped up in a reflexive way in that narrative as one of the leaders in weakening via negative real rates.
Jobs report doesn’t do anything to set the world on fire in terms of raising Fed expectations or treasury yields, and given the pivotal levels we have traded near lately in a number of USD pairs, may offer a fresh spot for new USD bearish positions.
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