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The US dollar is biding its time in a range after the huge sell-off that was mostly on the back of the October CPI release. If we get another couple of days or so of waiting for follow through lower in the greenback, the momentum will really have begun to seep out of the move. Still, the move was extensive enough to require a considerable rally indeed to argue that the USD bull market is returning. As I have noted, the next heavy hitting data points aren’t up until the November 30th PCE inflation print, and then the jobs report on December 2 and November CPI on December 13th. 

EURUSD W1 11 21 2022 1431
A huge break higher through 1.0100 in EURUSD was sparked by the hot October US CPI print last Thursday and we have closed every day this week within half a figure of the Friday close. A few days of consolidation is one thing, but if the pair doesn’t follow through higher in the coming couple of days, the move will have lost considerable momentum. Note the 200-day moving average that was touched earlier this week for the first time since June of last year, a remarkable run. That 1.0100 area is an important pivot, with the retracement of this large rally wave not coming into until close to parity. To the upside, the next important zone is perhaps 1.0611  retracement of the sell-off wave from the multi-year high at 1.2349 to the 0.9536 low for the cycle and then the 2020 pandemic outbreak a tad higher at 1.0636. 

EURUSD D1 11 21 2022 1431

 

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