Weekly analysis

The GBP/USD pair might rise in the medium term. The MACD Histogram may indicate a future uptrend for this pair, according to the daily chart. The stochastic oscillator may continue to rise in the medium term. According to the weekly chart, the uptrend RSI pattern is in the progress of getting completed.
The UK interest rates remain stable. The Bank of England has previously hinted that rates could start to increase soon, only to leave them unchanged. On the other hand, the United States lowered last month its interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, from 2% to an annual rate of 1.75%.

The most important data from this week:
October 7
U.S. Monthly Budget Statement
October 8
BOE Chairman Mark Carney speaks in Tokyo
FED Evens speaks in Chicago
FED Chairman Powell speaks in Denver
October 9
FED Chairman Powell speaks in Kansas
FOMC minutes
October 10
UK GDP 3 months (0.1% expectation); (0.00% previous)
MoM (0.00% expectation); (0.3% previous)
US CPI YoY (2.4% expectation); ( 2.4% previous)

The AUD/NZD pair might rise in the medium term, according to our technical analysis.The price has already hit EMA 20 on the daily chart, and the MACD is positive. A medium-term target for this pair might be 1.0679 where is Fibo 0.50 on the daily chart.The weekly chart also highlights future uptrend.This pair might rise to form a new bottom in the long term, as the weekly chart shows.
If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cuts the interest rate on Wednesday, it is negative for NZD.

The most important data of this week:
August 6
New Zealand Unemployment rate 2Q (4.3% expectation); ( 4.2% previous)
YoY (1.2% expectation); ( 1.3% previous)
RBA rate (1.00% expectation); (1.00% previous)
August 7
RBNZ rate (1.25% expectation); (1.5% previous)
August 8
RBA's Lowe Semi-Annual Testimony to Committee in Canberra

The EUR/AUD pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis.

The downtrend price pattern is in the progress of getting completed both on the daily and weekly chart. The price might reach EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100, on the weekly chart. The price might hit the three bottoms: 1.5908, 1.5690, and 1.5460.

The MACD is near the negative territory on the daily chart, and the possible next target is 1.5893, at Fibo 0.61.

The interest rate differential between the Euro Zone and Australia is higher, and this is a sign of a more decrease in EUR as against AUD.

The most important data from this week:

October 1

RBA rate decision (0.75% expectation); ( 1% previous)

October 3

Australia trade balance (6bl expectation); ( 7.2bl previous)

October 4

RBA Financial Stability Review

The USD/JPY pair is bearish on the medium-term outlook, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The U.S. Dollar will fall, as Fed officials are prepared to lower their benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point from its current range between 2.25% and 2.5%. A rate cut could also end the runoff of the Fed's $3.8 trillion asset portfolio.
Even if the pair is consolidating around 108, the trend continues to be down in the next weeks towards about 107.
The stochastic oscillator on the daily chart indicates an overbought level. The RSI oscillator is below 50 on the weekly chart, and this suggests a downtrend for this pair.
The most important data of this week:
July 30
Japan Jobless Rate (2.4% expectation); ( 2.4% previous)
BOJ rate decision (-0.1% expectation); ( -0.1% previous)
BOJ Outlook Report
July 31
US ADP Employment Change (150k expectation); (102k previous)
FOMC rate decision (2.25% expectation); ( 2.5% previous)
August 1
BOJ minutes

The AUD/USD is expected to be among the top movers this week. This currency pair continues to fall in the medium-term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The price is still below Ema 20, Ema 50, and Ema 100, on the daily and weekly charts. Another sign of the downtrend is that the RSI oscillator remains below 50.

The U.S, economy is in good shape, and the US Dollar will continue to rise. The U.S. economy continues to exceed expectations as consumers remain as confident as ever. While unemployment is at a record low, the number of jobs being created in the U.S. economy varies widely from month to month. On the other hand, the Australia's central bank is likely to retain its dovish bias and signal that they are willing to act and ease policy further if needed. 

The most important data from this week:

September 3 

RBA rate  (1.00% expectation); ( 1.00% previous)

September 4 

Australia GDP  QoQ (0.4% expectation); ( 0.4% previous)

                         YoY   (1.8% expectation); (1.8% previous) 

September 5 

U.S ADP Employment Change (140k expectation); ( 156k previous) 

September 6 

U.S NFP   (162k expectation); ( 164k previous)

U.S Unemplyment rate  (3.7% expectation); ( 3.7% previous) 

The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading at 75.92 and could rise above 77.00 in the next period, as per technical charts. The price has already hit EMA 20 and EMA 50 on the daily chart, and the RSI oscillator is still above 50. A medium-term target is Fibo 0.50 (77.17).
The bottom was at 74.15 on the weekly chart. The RSI oscillator will soon cross above 50.
The price might stabilize around 80.00 in the medium-long term, between EMA 50 and EMA 100 on the weekly chart.

The most important data of this week:
July 16
RBA minutes
July 17
Japan Trade balance (June); (JPY 406.bln expectation); (JPY 967 bln previous)
July 18
Australia Employment change (June); (9k expectation); (42.3k previous)
Employment rate ( June); (5.2% expectation); (5.2% previous)
Japan National CPI YoY (0.7% expectation); ( 0.7% previous)

The EUR/USD pair might fall in the medium-long term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The RSI oscillator remains below 50, and this is a clear sign of a downtrend. The price is also below EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100, on the weekly chart. Even if this pair rises in the short term, it will enter into a medium-long term downtrend.
Possible Germany’s recession also sustains the EUR/USD downtrend. Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse and biggest economy may be entering a recession, according to a gloomy report from the country’s central bank. This could have repercussions for the rest of the eurozone and the United States.

The most important data of this week:

August 27
Germany GDP QoQ (-0.1% expectation); ( -0.1% previous)
YoY (0.4% expectation); ( 0.4% previous)
August 29
France GDP QoQ (0.2% expectation); ( 0.2% previous)
YoY (1.3% expectation); ( 1.3% previous)
Germany Unemployment Change (3.5k expectation); ( 1k previous)
Rate (5% expectation); ( 5% previous)
Germany CPI MoM (-0.1% expectation); (0.5% previous)
YoY (1.5% expectation); (1.7% previous)
US GDP QoQ (2% expectation); ( 2.1% previous)
August 30
Eurozone CPI YoY (1% expectation); ( -0.9% previous)
Italy GDP QoQ (0.00% expectation); (0.00% previous)
YoY (0.00% expectation); ( 0.00% previous)

The USD/CAD currency pair will fall in the medium-long term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The RSI oscillator is still above 50 on the weekly chart. The price has already hit EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 200 on the weekly chart. A potential medium-term target is 1.2720, where is Fibo 0.38 on the daily chart. The dollar may fall in the next month as markets expect the Fed to cut interest rate.
The most important data of this week:
July 10
BOC rate decision (1.75% expected); (1.75% previous)
Fed's Powell Testifies Before House Financial Services Panel
July 11
US CPI MoM (0.00% expected); (0.1% previous)
YoY (1.6% expected); (1.8% previous)
Fed's Powell Testifies Before Senate Banking Committee

The FTSE 100 Index might fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The MACD on the daily and weekly charts is negative. The price has already reached EMA 20, 50, and 100 on the weekly chart, and this is a signals for downtrend. A medium-term target for this pair is 6818 where is Fibo 0.50 on the daily chart.
Politics in the UK is likely to remain messy as we approach the Brexit deadline. The government, led by Boris Johnson, made it clear they aren’t willing to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement without the removal of the Irish backstop. On the other hand, European leaders made it clear the withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation.The Brexit uncertainty is likely to be a challenging time for the UK economy.

The most important data from this week:

August 13
UK Unemployment change (62k expectation); ( 28k previous)
UK Unemployment rate (3.8% expectation);( 3.8% previous)
August 14
UK CPI MoM (-0.1% expectation); (0.00% previous)
YoY (1.8% expectation); (1.8% previous)
UK PPI MoM (0.6% expectation); (-1.4% previous)
YoY (0.3% expectation); ( -0.3% previous)

The USD/JPY currency pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The target for the next weeks is Fibo 0.23 (106.95). Also on the weekly chart, the USD/JPY pair shows a downtrend continuation. The RSI oscillator is still below 50, and the price is below EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100. The US dollar continues to fall as rising trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and growing bets on a US interest rate cut.
The most important data from this week:
June 19
FOMC rate decision (2.5% expectation); ( 2.5% previous)
June 20
BOJ rate decision (-0.1% expectation); ( -0.1% previous)
Japan National CPI YoY (-0.7% expectation); ( -0.9% previous)