Weekly analysis

GBP/NZD bulls have solidly been in control for the past few weeks. According to our technical and fundamental analysis, the GBP/NZD pair might continue to rise in the medium term. The RSI oscillator is still above 50. Moreover, the price has already reached EMA 50 and EMA 200 on the daily chart and weekly chart. These are clear reasons that the uptrend will continue on this pair.

The most important data of this week:

October 16
New Zealand CPI QoQ (+0.7% expectation); (+0.4% previous)
YoY (+1.7% expectation); (+1.5% previous)
UK Unemployment rate (+4.00% expectation); ( +4.00% previous)
Employment Change (+11K expectation); (+3K previous)
October 17
UK CPI MoM (+0.3% expectation); (+0.7% previous)
YoY (+2.3% expectation); (+2.7% previous)

The GBP/USD pair might continue to rise, according to our recent fundamental and technical analysis. The MACD on the daily chart indicates the uptrend. If the price reaches EMA 200 at 1.3264, the next target will be 38% Fibo (1.3306).
A bottom has already formed at 1.2663 on the weekly chart. A long-term target might be 38% Fibo (1.3926), according to the weekly chart.

The most important data of this week:

October 10

UK GDP MoM (+0.1% expectation); (+0.3% previous)
QoQ (+0.6% expectation); (+0.6% previous)
US PPI MoM (+0.2% expectation); (-0.1% previous)
YoY (+2.6% expectation); (+2.3% previous)

October 11

US CPI MoM (+0.2%expectation); (+0.2% previous)
YoY (+2.4% expectation); (+2.7% previous)

The USD/CHF pair might rise in the medium-long term, according to the daily and weekly chart. The RSI oscillator on the daily chart is below 70, and this means that the USD/CHF will continue to rise. The price might form a triple top at 1.004, on the daily chart. The weekly chart also indicates that this pair is into an uptrend. The price has already reached EMA 50 (0.9780).

The most important data of this week:

October 3
US ADP Employment Change (+185k expectation); ( +163k previous)
October 5
Switzerland CPI MoM (+0.2% expectation); (0.00% previous)
YoY (+1.1% expectation); (+1.2% previous)
US NFP (+185k expectation); ( +201k previous)
Unemployment Rate (+3.8% expectation); (+3.9% previous)

The EUR/USD pair is still in an uptrend, according to the daily and weekly chart. The RSI oscillator is above 50, and the price has already reached EMA 50 on the daily chart.
In last week’s ECB press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi has mentioned a potential date when we might see the first interest rate rise. For the moment, European Central Bank leaves interest rates on hold at least through the summer of 2019.

September 26
FOMC rate decision (+2.25% expectation); ( +2.00% previous)
September 27
ECB Economic Bulletin
Germany CPI MoM (+0.1% expectation); ( +0.1% previous)
YoY (+2.00% expectation); (+2.00 previous)
US GDP Q2 (+3.00% expectation); ( +3.00% previous)

The NZD/JPY pair might head lower in the medium and long term. The RSI oscillator is below 50 on the daily and weekly charts, and this shows a downtrend. The stochastic oscillator also indicates that the pair might fall in the next few weeks, according to the daily chart.
The NZD/JPY has remained in a downward trend channel for the past 12 months, hitting over a two year lower earlier in August.
The most important data of this week:
September 19
New Zealand GDP QoQ (+0.8% expectation); ( +0.5% previous)
YoY (+2.5% expectation); ( +2.7% previous)
BOJ rate decision (-0.10% expectation); ( -0.10% previous)
September 20
Japan CPI YoY (+1.1% expectation); (+0.9% previous)

The EUR/AUD pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical analysis. The RSI on the daily chart (80.45) has already reached an extremely overbought level. Also on the weekly chart, the RSI oscillator is above 70 and this indicates an overbought level.

The most important data of this week:

September 12
Eurozone Employment QoQ (+0.4% previous)
YoY (+1.4% previous)
September 13
Australia Employment Change August (+18k expectation);(-3.9k previous)

Unemployment Rate August (+5.3% expectation);( +5.3% previous)

Germany CPI MoM (+0.1% expectation);( +0.1% previous)

YoY (+2.00% expectation); ( +2.00% previous)

ECB Rate Decision (0.00% unchanged expectation); (0.00% unchanged previous)

The AUD/CAD currency pair might rise in the medium-long term, according to our technical analysis. The MACD oscillator will soon turn positive on the daily chart. The double bottom (0.9352) was also rejected. Moreover, the RSI oscillator on the weekly chart is 33.05, and this indicates that the AUD/CAD pair is near oversold territory. According to our analysts, there is also a high probability that Australian economy will grow by 0.9% QoQ.
The most important data of this week:
September 5
Australia GDP QoQ (+0.7% expectation); ( +1.0% previous)
YoY (+2.8% expectation); (+3.1% previous)
BOC rate decision (+1.5% expectation); ( +1.5% previous)
September 7
Canada Unemployment rate August (+5.9% expectation); (+5.8% previous)

The RSI on the daily chart is below 50 and this is a sign of a medium-term downtrend. Moreover, Canada's inflation rate rose to its highest level since 2011 last month, as higher prices for airplane tickets, tourism and gasoline pushed the rate to three per cent. That's up from 2.5 per cent in June, which was already the highest level in more than six years.
According to our technical and fundamental analysis, the USD/CAD pair might fall in order to form a double bottom at 1.2550, in the long term.

The most important data of this week:
August 28
US GDP QoQ (+4.0% expectation); (+4.1% previous)
Canada Current Account (-15.45bl expectation); (-19.50bl previous)
August 30
Canada GDP MoM (+0.1% expectation); (+0.5% previous)
YoY (+2.3% expectation); (+2.6% previous)

The USD/JPY currency pair might fall in the medium term, according to the daily and weekly chart. The price is below EMA 50 and this indicates a start of a downtrend. The RSI oscillator is also below 50 on the daily chart.

According to the weekly chart, the price might reach EMA 50 (110.07), in order to form a double bottom at 104.70 in the long term.

Fed might leave rates unchanged next month. Moreover, Japan's Central Bank is unlikely to make any change to its monetary policy given the weak inflation outlook, most analysts said.

The most important data of this week:

August 22
FOMC minutes
August 24
Fed Hosts Annual Jackson Hole Central Banking Symposium

The EUR/USD currency pair indicates an oversold level around RSI 30, according to the daily chart and weekly chart. A medium-long term target for this pair might be 1.1730 (Fibo 38%).
Eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018. Eurozone economic growth has already slowed during the first quarter of 2018.

August 14
Germany GDP QoQ (+0.4% expectation); ( +0.3% previous)
YoY (+2.1% expectation); (+2.3% previous)
Germany CPI MoM (+0.3% expectation); ( +0.3% previous)
YoY (+2% expectation); ( +2% previous)
Eurozone GDP QoQ (+0.3% expectation); (+0.3% previous)
YoY (+2.1% previous); (+2.1% previous)
August 17
Eurozone CPI MoM (-0.3% expectation); (+0.1% previous)
YoY (+2.1% expectation); (+2.0% previous)