A medium-term increase is expected for the EUR/USD currency pair.The RSI oscillator is above 50, and the stochastic indicator shows an uptrend on the weekly chart. The price is above EMA 20, and EMA 50, and soon it will reach EMA 100. According to the daily chart, the MACD is still positive. The RSI oscillator is above 50, and the price has already hit EMA 200, EMA 50, and EMA 100. The price will reach 1.1272 in the medium term, where is Fibo 23%.
January 7
Eurozone CPI YoY (1.3% expectation); (1.3% previous)
MoM (0.3% expectation); (-0.3% previous)
January 8
Eurozone Economic Confidence (101.4 expectation); (101.3 previous)
US ADP Employment change (160k expectation); (67k previous)
January 10
US NFP (162k expectation); (266k previous)
US Unemployment Rate (3.5% expectation); (3.5% previous)
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The GBP/USD pair might rise in the near term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The stochastic oscillator reached oversold levels by dropping below 20. The price may rise to 1.3175, where is Fibo 50%. The RSI indicator is above 50 on the weekly chart, and this shows an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend line on the weekly chart indicates the uptrend. The price is still above EMA 20 and EMA 50 on the weekly chart and a medium-term target might be 1.3139.
The most important data from this week:
November 12
UK Employment Change (-102k expectation); (-56k previous)
UK Unemployment rate (3.9% expectation); (3.9% previous)
November 13
UK CPI (1.6% expectation); (1.7% previous)
US CPI (1.7% expectation); (1.7% previous)
FED Chairman Jerome Powell Addresses Joint Economic Committee Of Congress
November 14
FED Chairman Jerome Powell Appears Before House Budget Committee
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The EUR/CHF pair might fall more in the near term. The pair is still into a range between 1.1039 and 1.0850, on the daily chart. The MACD remains into negative territory, and the price is below EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100, on the daily chart.
The EUR/JPY pair may fall in the near term, according to the daily and weekly charts. The MACD indicator is into negative territory, and the stochastic oscillator is down on the daily chart. The stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone on the weekly chart. On the other hand, recent data from Europe are not favorable. Factory activity across the eurozone contracted sharply last month as demand was again stifled by the lack of clarity over Britain’s departure from the European Union and the U.S. trade war with China.
The most important data from this week:
November 5
Eurozone PPI MoM (+0.1% expectation); (-0.5% previous)
You (-1.2% expectation); (-0.8% previous)
November 6
Eurozone Composite PMI (50.2 expectation); ( 50.2 previous)
Services PMI (51.8 expectation); (51.8 previous)
November 7
EU Commision Economic Forecast
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The EUR/AUD pair is still into an uptrend, according to our technical analysis. The price on the daily chart has already reached EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100. The MACD is into positive territory, and the RSI oscillator is above 50. According to the weekly chart, the price is above EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100. The stochastic oscillator and the RSI on the weekly chart indicate the uptrend for this pair.
The most important data from this week:
December 2
ECB President Lagarde testifies at European Parliament
December 3
RBA rate (0.75% expectation); ( 0.75% previous)
December 4
Australia GDP QoQ (0.5% expectation)
YoY (1.4% expectation
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The DAX 30 index might continue to rise, according to the daily and weekly charts. The price has already reached EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100 on the daily chart, and the MACD indicator is still positive. The RSI oscillator is above 50 on the weekly chart, and this indicates an uptrend. The price has also hit EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100 on the weekly chart. The price might increase to form a triangular shape at 13620. The German economic performance is also an effect of the low interest rates. Mario Draghi's pledge on low interest rates hits euro and lifts bonds.
The most important data from this week:
October 24
Eurozone PMI (50.4 expectation); ( 50.1 previous)
ECB rate (-0.50% expectation); (-0.50 previous)
ECB Mario Draghi press conference
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The EUR/USD pair will fall in the near term, according to the daily and weekly charts. The price is above EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100 on the daily chart. The MACD indicator is into negative territory. The RSI oscillator on the weekly chart is above 50, and the downtrend RSI pattern is in the progress of getting completed. The price on the weekly chart is still above EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100, and the stochastic moves down. EUR/USD pair also declines because of the interest rate differentials between the US and Eurozone. The interest rate in the US is higher than the interest rate in Eurozone.
The most important data from this week:
November 27
US GDP Q3 (1.9% expectation); ( 1.9% previous)
November 28
Germany CPI YoY (1.2% expectation); ( 0.9% previous)
MoM (-0.6% expectation); ( 0.1% previous)
November 29
Germany Unemployment Change (5k expectation); (6k previous)
Unemployment Rate (5.0% expectation); ( 5.0% previous)
Eurozone CPI YoY (1.2% expectation); (1.1% previous)
MoM (-0.4% expectation); ( 0.1% previous)
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The AUD/USD currency pair might rise in the medium term, according to our daily and weekly analysis. The pair is now at its highest level since September 25. The gains follow weak U.S. inflation data.
The MACD is into positive territory, and the price has already hit EMA 20 and EMA 50, on the daily chart. The stochastic oscillator might be on the rise, according to the weekly chart.
The fundamental data from this week:
October 15
RBA minutes
October 17
Australia Employment Change (15k expected); ( 34k previous)
Rate (5.3% expected); (5.3% previous)
RBA Governor Lowe speaks in Washington
The EUR/CAD pair might rise in the near term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The price has already reached EMA 20 and EMA 50 on the daily chart, and the stochastic indicator is positive. The price might hit 1.4880 level, where is Fibo 23% on the daily chart.
As prices keep rising in an uptrend, the RSI will cross the 50 mark, on the weekly chart. The price is near EMA 20, and it has already formed a triangle trendline.
The most important data from this week:
November 20
ECB publishes Financial Stability Review
Canada CPI YoY (1.9% expectation); ( 1.9% previous)
MoM (0.3% expectation); ( -0.4% previous)
November 21
ECB minutes
Bundesbank publishes Financial Stability Review
BOC Chairman Poloz speaks in Toronto
November 22
Germany GDP YoY (1.00% expectation);( 1.00% previous)
November 23
ECB President Lagarde speaks in Frankfurt
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The GBP/USD pair might rise in the medium term. The MACD Histogram may indicate a future uptrend for this pair, according to the daily chart. The stochastic oscillator may continue to rise in the medium term. According to the weekly chart, the uptrend RSI pattern is in the progress of getting completed.
The UK interest rates remain stable. The Bank of England has previously hinted that rates could start to increase soon, only to leave them unchanged. On the other hand, the United States lowered last month its interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, from 2% to an annual rate of 1.75%.
The most important data from this week:
October 7
U.S. Monthly Budget Statement
October 8
BOE Chairman Mark Carney speaks in Tokyo
FED Evens speaks in Chicago
FED Chairman Powell speaks in Denver
October 9
FED Chairman Powell speaks in Kansas
FOMC minutes
October 10
UK GDP 3 months (0.1% expectation); (0.00% previous)
MoM (0.00% expectation); (0.3% previous)
US CPI YoY (2.4% expectation); ( 2.4% previous)
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