EUR JPY 70pips

The euro and yen have also been buffeted by month-end flows. But with this short-lived phenomenon now largely over, focus ought to return to the usual themes driving the two currencies; risk appetite, central banks and economic fundamentals.

In particular, JPY traders will be watching for any hints that US states are moving further into lockdown, something which could support JPY vs its G10 peers including EUR. Moreover, Japanese November manufacturing and services PMIs are released on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, which ought to garner some attention, as should speeches from BoJ’s Amamiya and Suzuki.

Meanwhile, EUR traders very much expect a hefty dose of easing from the ECB on 16 December and will be looking for further confirmation of as much from ECB President Christine Lagarde (speaking on Tuesday) and ECB Chief Economist Lane (speaking on Wednesday). Meanwhile, November Consumer Price Inflation is likely to be very soft and is released on Wednesday, while traders will also be watching Eurozone retail sales on Thursday.

EUR/JPY double top?
With EUR/JPY strongly rejecting resistance at the previous monthly high at 125.14, a double top has been put in. If this does turn out to be a meaningful double top, eyes will be on support just below the 124.00 level (26 November lows) and then the pair’s 21 and 50-day moving averages just above 123.50. Below that at the 123.00 level, there is also strong support (2 and 15 October lows and 18, 19 and 20 November lows).

EUR JPY 20201117 09.22

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GJexit2

GBP/JPY wobbles around the intraday high near 138.93, up 0.7% on a day, amid Monday’s Asian trading. Even if the Japanese markets are off, the risk-on mood favors the pair to probe the one week high.

Among the positive catalysts, Brexit optimism and the UK’s intention to ease the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown measures, coupled with the vaccine hopes, gain major attention. Also supporting the mood could be hints of further stimulus from the Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Yoshihide Suga.

GBP JPY 20201120 10.032

USDCHFexit

USDCHF H4 11 18 2020 0916

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US 500 20EXIT120pips

The S&P 500 headed for record closing highs, building on gains from last week after a similar vaccine-related update from Pfizer Inc brightened the economic outlook and sparked a rotation into cyclical and value shares.

US 500 20201112 16.20

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EUR GBP EXIT80EUR GBP 20201103 12.16

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Oil EXIT

Oil US Crude 20201120 10.05

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NZD CADEXIT2

While the pair's latest upside comes from the upbeat comments from RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby. The policymaker rekindled the New Zealand central bank's cautious optimism while expecting economic recovery and citing need for less stimulus.
Be it the refrain from entertaining the chatters for negative rates, at least for now, or hopes of economic recovery, yesterday’s updates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) pleased NZD bulls. The mood also got confirmations from the coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions at home, unlike those from the US and Europe.

 

NZD CAD 20201029 11.40

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