Weekly analysis

The EUR/JPY pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical analysis. The price is below EMA 50 and EMA 200 on the daily chart, and the RSI oscillator is still below 50. The MACD remains in negative territory. The EUR/JPY may fall at around 121.00 in the medium term. The euro currency has slipped in value after the European Central Bank (ECB) trimmed its growth forecasts for this year. The 2019 GDP (gross domestic product) figure was cut back to 1.7 percent from a previous forecast of 1.8 percent.

The most important data from this week:

February 13

Japan GDP QoQ (+0.4% expectation); ( -0.6% previous)

                    YoY  (+1.4% expectation); (-2.5% previous)

February 14

Germany GDP  QoQ  (+0.1% expectation); ( -0.2% previous)

                          YoY   (+0.8% expectation); (+1.1% previous)

Eurozone GDP  QoQ  (+0.2% expectation); (+0.2% previous)

                           YoY  (+1.2% expectation); (+1.2% previous)

The AUD/NZD pair may fall in the medium term according to our technical analysis.
The price stays below EMA200 and EMA50 on the daily chart, and the RSI oscillator is below 50. Also, the RSI oscillator on the weekly chart stays below 50. The AUD/NZD might fall at 103.00 in the medium term.

The most important data from this week:
February 5
RBA Cash Rate (+1.5% expectation); ( +1.5% previous)
February 6
New Zealand Employment Rate (Q4) (+4.1% expectation); ( +3.9% previous)
February 8
RBS Statement on Monetary Policy

The USD/JPY currency pair may fall in the medium term. The RSI oscillator is below 50 on the daily and weekly charts. The price has already reached EMA 200 on the weekly chart, and this indicates that the fall will continue. A medium-term target for this pair is below 108.00.

The most important data of the week:
January 30
US ADP Employment Change (+185k expectation); ( +271k previous)
US GDP QoQ (+2.6% expectation); ( +3.4% previous)
February 1
US NFP (+165k expectation); ( +312k previous)
US Unemployment Rate (3.9% expectation); ( 3.9% previous)

The AUD/JPY currency pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The RSI oscillator on the daily and weekly charts is below 50, and this indicates a downtrend. A medium-term target may be 75.23 where is Fibo 0.23 on the weekly chart.
Low wages, high debts and housing bubble continue to threaten the Australian economy and the Australian dollar.

The most important data of this week:
January 23
BOJ rate decision (-0.1% expectation) ( -0.1% previous)
BOJ Outlook Report
Australia Unemployment Rate (+5.1% expectation) ( +5.1% previous)
Unemployment Change (18k expectation) ( 37k previous)

The EUR/USD currency pair might rise in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The RSI oscillator is above 50, and the price has already reached EMA 50 on the daily chart. The next target on the medium-long term might be Fibo 0.38 (1.1725) on the daily chart. The stochastic oscillator indicates an uptrend on the weekly chart.
The U.S. dollar continues to be low against other currencies amid renewed trade war fears and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

The most important data of this week:

January 15
Eurozone GDP QoQ (+1.5% expectation); ( +2.2% previous)
January 16
Germany CPI MoM (+0.1% expectation); ( +0.1% previous)
YoY (+1.7% expectation); (+1.7% previous)
FED Beige Book

The USD/CHF currency pair might fall in the next period, according to the daily and weekly charts. The price is above EMA 200, and the RSI oscillator is below 50 on the daily chart. The potential target in the medium-long term might be Fibo 0.50 (0.9679) and Fibo 0.38 (0.9561). The weekly chart also indicates a downtrend. The price is above EMA 50, and the RSI oscillator is above 50.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome "Jay" Powell took steps to reassure financial markets recently. He said that the US central bank would be "patient" about rate rises.
The most important data for this week:
January 9
Switzerland CPI MoM (-0.2% expectation); (-0.3% previous)
YoY (+0.8% expectation); (+0.9% previous)
US FOMC minutes
January 10
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (+2.4% expectation); (+2.4% previous)
Fed’s Powell to Speak to The Economic Club of Washington
January 11
US CPI MoM (-0.1% expectation); (0.0% previous)
YoY (+1.9% expectation); (+2.2% previous)

The USD/CAD pair might continue to rise in the medium term, according to the daily and weekly charts. The RSI oscillator is above 50, and the MACD remains in positive territory on the daily chart. The RSI oscillator on the weekly chart stays above 50. The pair might rise around 1.3620 in the medium term.

December 19

Canada CPI  MoM (-0.4% expectation); ( +0.3% previous)

                      YoY   (+1.8% expectation); ( +2.4% previous)

FOMC rate decision (+2.5% expectation); ( +2.25% previous)

December 21

Canada GDP  MoM  (+0.2% expectation); ( -0.1% previous)

                        YoY   (+2.2% expectation);  ( +2.1% previous)

The EUR/JPY currency pair might fall in the medium-long term, according to the daily and weekly charts. The MACD indicator is into negative territory on the daily chart. A potential target in the medium term might be 126.25 where is Fibo 0.50. On the other hand, the RSI oscillator on the weekly chart stays below 50.
The most important data of the week:
December 13
Germany CPI MoM +0.1% expectation (+0.1% previous)
YoY +2.3% expectation (+2.3%% previous)
ECB rate decision unchanged expectation -0.40% ( -0.40% previous)
December 14
Japan Tankan Manufacturing Index 4Q +18 expectation ( 19 previous)

The AUD/CAD pair might continue to rise in the medium-long term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The price has already reached EMA 50 on the weekly chart, and the RSI is above 50. Moreover, the MACD is positive on the daily chart.
At the G20 summit meeting in Buenos Aires, Donald Trump agreed not to boost tariffs on $200bn (£157bn) of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% on 1 January. The outcome of the dinner meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, following months of escalating tensions on trade and other issues, boosted financial markets around the world.
Australian’s economy will continue to grow based on this agreement, Australia is the biggest exporter of commodities and China is the biggest importer.

The most important data of this week:
December 4
RBA rate decision (+1.5% expectation); ( +1.5% previous)
December 5
Australia GDP QoQ (+0.6% expectation); ( +0.9% previous)
YoY (+3.3% expectation); ( +3.4% previous)
BOC rate decision (+1.75% expectation); ( +1.75% previous)
December 7
Canada Unemployment Rate (+5.8% expectation); (+5.8% previous)

Unemmployment Change (+10k expectation); ( +11k previous)

The EUR/USD pair may rise in the long term, according to our technical analysis. The RSI oscillator is near 50, and the next medium-term target may be 1.1863 where is 0.50 Fibo level on the daily chart.
The stochastic oscillator indicates an uptrend in the long term for this pair. The next FOMC minutes scheduled on November 29 may give a signal for USD weakness.

The most important data of this week:
November 28
US GDP QoQ (+3.6% expectation); ( +3.5% previous)
November 29
Germany Unemployment Change (-10k expectation); ( -11k previous)
Unemployment rate (5.00% expectation); ( 5.1% previous)
Germany CPI MoM unchanged (+0.2% previous)
YoY (+2.2% expectation); ( +2.5% previous)
FOMC minutes