Weekly analysis

The GBP/JPY pair might fall in the short term. A potential target for the next few weeks is 140.63 where is Fibo 0.38 on the daily chart. The top has been already reached at 148.50, according to the weekly chart.

The pound could continue to fall as more Brexit uncertainty surfaced. European Union leaders have granted the UK a six-month extension to Brexit. The new deadline - 31 October - averts the prospect of the UK having to leave the EU without a deal, as MPs are still deadlocked over a deal.

The most important data from this week:

April 16
UK Unemployment rate (4% expectation); ( 3.9% previous)
Unemployment change (173k expectation); ( 222k previous)
Japan trade balance (305JPY billion expectation); (116JPY billion previous)
April 17
UK CPI MoM (0.2% expectation); ( 0.5% previous)
YoY (2% expectation); (1.9% previous)
April 18
Japan CPI YoY (0.5% expectation); ( 0.2% previous)

The AUD/USD currency pair may fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The price is below EMA 200 and EMA 50, and the RSI is below 50 on the weekly chart. MACD crosses into negative territory, on the daily chart. A potential medium-term target might be 0.6744.

The U.S. dollar will continue to appreciate, and AUD is more likely to depreciate further. Domestic economy in Australia remains weak, and the housing market continues to deteriorate. There is a high probability that Australia will be the first G10 central bank to start cutting rates this year.

The most important data from this week:

March 5

Australia GDP 4Q (-0.1% expectation); ( +0.4% previous)

RBA rate 1.5% expectation ( 1.5% previously)

March 8

US NFP +187K expectation (+296K previous)

Unemployment rate 3.9% expectation ( 4.0% previous)

The DAX 30 will continue to rise in the next weeks, according to our daily and weekly analysis. The RSI oscillator is still above 50 on the daily and weekly charts. The price on the daily charts has already hit EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100. A medium-term target for this index is 12332 where is 0.23 Fibo on the weekly chart.

On the other hand, the European Central Bank’s program influences the price of the DAX.

The ECB announced it would be making billions of Euros available to Eurozone banks at cheap rates to try and reinvigorate lending to the economy. The tranches of the third Targeted Longer-term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) will start in September 2019 and end in March 2021, with each loan having a maturity of two years. 

The most important data from this week:

April 10

ECB rate decision (0.00% unchanged expectation); (0.00% previous)

        Lending Facility (0.25% expectation); ( 0.25% previous)

        Deposit Facility (-0.4% expectation); (-0.4% previous)

ECB Mario Draghi’s press conference 

April 12

Germany CPI MoM (0.4% expectation); ( 0.4% previous)

The EUR/JPY pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical analysis. The price is below EMA 50 and EMA 200 on the daily chart, and the RSI oscillator is still below 50. The MACD remains in negative territory. The EUR/JPY may fall at around 121.00 in the medium term. The euro currency has slipped in value after the European Central Bank (ECB) trimmed its growth forecasts for this year. The 2019 GDP (gross domestic product) figure was cut back to 1.7 percent from a previous forecast of 1.8 percent.

The most important data from this week:

February 13

Japan GDP QoQ (+0.4% expectation); ( -0.6% previous)

                    YoY  (+1.4% expectation); (-2.5% previous)

February 14

Germany GDP  QoQ  (+0.1% expectation); ( -0.2% previous)

                          YoY   (+0.8% expectation); (+1.1% previous)

Eurozone GDP  QoQ  (+0.2% expectation); (+0.2% previous)

                           YoY  (+1.2% expectation); (+1.2% previous)

The USD/CAD currency pair might fall in the short term, according to the daily chart. However, the pair is still in a medium-long term uptrend.
The price has already reached EMA 20 on the daily chart, and it may fall at 1.3307 where is EMA 50. The MACD is still positive, and this is a confirmation that the USD/CAD pair might rise in the medium term. The medium-long term uptrend is also confirmed on the weekly chart. The RSI oscillator stays above 50, and the price is still above EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100.

The most important data from this week:
April 1
Bank of Canada's Poloz Gives Speech in Iqaluit
April 3
US ADP (180k expectation); ( 183k previous)
April 5
Canada Unemployment rate (5.8% expectation); ( 5.8% previous)
US Unemployment rate (3.8% expectation); ( 3.8% previous)
US NFP (175k expectation); (200k previous)

The AUD/NZD pair may fall in the medium term according to our technical analysis.
The price stays below EMA200 and EMA50 on the daily chart, and the RSI oscillator is below 50. Also, the RSI oscillator on the weekly chart stays below 50. The AUD/NZD might fall at 103.00 in the medium term.

The most important data from this week:
February 5
RBA Cash Rate (+1.5% expectation); ( +1.5% previous)
February 6
New Zealand Employment Rate (Q4) (+4.1% expectation); ( +3.9% previous)
February 8
RBS Statement on Monetary Policy

The EUR/USD currency pair might fall in the medium term. The price has already reached EMA 50, EMA 100, and EMA 200, and the MACD crosses from positive territory to negative territory on the daily chart. A downward trend is already confirmed, as the RSI oscillator stays above 50 on the weekly chart.
The euro fell sharply against the dollar this month after the European Central Bank (ECB) unveiled a series of market-friendly policies amid a slew of rising risks. The euro zone’s central bank slashed its growth forecast for 2019 to 1.1 percent from an earlier forecast of 1.7 percent made in December.

The most important data from this week:
March 26
France GDP QoQ (0.3% expectation); (0.3%previous)
YoY (0.9% expectation); ( 0.9% previous)
March 27
ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Frankfurt
March 28
US GDP QoQ (+2.4% expectation); (+2.6% previous )
YoY (+2.6% expectation); (+2.8% previous)
Germany CPI MoM (+0.6% expectation); (+0.4% previous)
YoY (+1.5% expectation); (+1.5% previous)
Germany Unemployment Change (-10k expectation); (-21k previous)
Rate (4.9% expectation); (5.0% previous)

The USD/JPY currency pair may fall in the medium term. The RSI oscillator is below 50 on the daily and weekly charts. The price has already reached EMA 200 on the weekly chart, and this indicates that the fall will continue. A medium-term target for this pair is below 108.00.

The most important data of the week:
January 30
US ADP Employment Change (+185k expectation); ( +271k previous)
US GDP QoQ (+2.6% expectation); ( +3.4% previous)
February 1
US NFP (+165k expectation); ( +312k previous)
US Unemployment Rate (3.9% expectation); ( 3.9% previous)

The USD/JPY currency pair might rise in the medium term, according to our daily and weekly analysis. The RSI oscillator is above 50 on the daily chart, and a potential target for this pair is Fibo 0.23 (112.24). The price on the weekly chart has already reached EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100, and this is a clear confirmation for an uptrend. The RSI oscillator on the weekly chart also stays above 50.

The most important data from this week:

March 19
BOJ minutes
March 20
FOMC rate decision (2.5% expectation); ( 2.5% previous)
March 21
Japan CPI (0.8% YoY expectation); ( 0.8% previous)

The AUD/JPY currency pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The RSI oscillator on the daily and weekly charts is below 50, and this indicates a downtrend. A medium-term target may be 75.23 where is Fibo 0.23 on the weekly chart.
Low wages, high debts and housing bubble continue to threaten the Australian economy and the Australian dollar.

The most important data of this week:
January 23
BOJ rate decision (-0.1% expectation) ( -0.1% previous)
BOJ Outlook Report
Australia Unemployment Rate (+5.1% expectation) ( +5.1% previous)
Unemployment Change (18k expectation) ( 37k previous)