Weekly analysis

The GBP/USD pair might rise in the near term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The stochastic oscillator reached oversold levels by dropping below 20. The price may rise to 1.3175, where is Fibo 50%. The RSI indicator is above 50 on the weekly chart, and this shows an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend line on the weekly chart indicates the uptrend. The price is still above EMA 20 and EMA 50 on the weekly chart and a medium-term target might be 1.3139.

The most important data from this week:
November 12
UK Employment Change (-102k expectation); (-56k previous)
UK Unemployment rate (3.9% expectation); (3.9% previous)
November 13
UK CPI (1.6% expectation); (1.7% previous)
US CPI (1.7% expectation); (1.7% previous)
FED Chairman Jerome Powell Addresses Joint Economic Committee Of Congress
November 14
FED Chairman Jerome Powell Appears Before House Budget Committee 

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The EUR/AUD pair might fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis.

The downtrend price pattern is in the progress of getting completed both on the daily and weekly chart. The price might reach EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100, on the weekly chart. The price might hit the three bottoms: 1.5908, 1.5690, and 1.5460.

The MACD is near the negative territory on the daily chart, and the possible next target is 1.5893, at Fibo 0.61.

The interest rate differential between the Euro Zone and Australia is higher, and this is a sign of a more decrease in EUR as against AUD.

The most important data from this week:

October 1

RBA rate decision (0.75% expectation); ( 1% previous)

October 3

Australia trade balance (6bl expectation); ( 7.2bl previous)

October 4

RBA Financial Stability Review

The EUR/JPY pair may fall in the near term, according to the daily and weekly charts. The MACD indicator is into negative territory, and the stochastic oscillator is down on the daily chart. The stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone on the weekly chart. On the other hand, recent data from Europe are not favorable. Factory activity across the eurozone contracted sharply last month as demand was again stifled by the lack of clarity over Britain’s departure from the European Union and the U.S. trade war with China.
The most important data from this week:
November 5
Eurozone PPI MoM (+0.1% expectation); (-0.5% previous)
You (-1.2% expectation); (-0.8% previous)
November 6
Eurozone Composite PMI (50.2 expectation); ( 50.2 previous)
Services PMI (51.8 expectation); (51.8 previous)
November 7
EU Commision Economic Forecast

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The AUD/USD is expected to be among the top movers this week. This currency pair continues to fall in the medium-term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The price is still below Ema 20, Ema 50, and Ema 100, on the daily and weekly charts. Another sign of the downtrend is that the RSI oscillator remains below 50.

The U.S, economy is in good shape, and the US Dollar will continue to rise. The U.S. economy continues to exceed expectations as consumers remain as confident as ever. While unemployment is at a record low, the number of jobs being created in the U.S. economy varies widely from month to month. On the other hand, the Australia's central bank is likely to retain its dovish bias and signal that they are willing to act and ease policy further if needed. 

The most important data from this week:

September 3 

RBA rate  (1.00% expectation); ( 1.00% previous)

September 4 

Australia GDP  QoQ (0.4% expectation); ( 0.4% previous)

                         YoY   (1.8% expectation); (1.8% previous) 

September 5 

U.S ADP Employment Change (140k expectation); ( 156k previous) 

September 6 

U.S NFP   (162k expectation); ( 164k previous)

U.S Unemplyment rate  (3.7% expectation); ( 3.7% previous) 

The DAX 30 index might continue to rise, according to the daily and weekly charts. The price has already reached EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100 on the daily chart, and the MACD indicator is still positive. The RSI oscillator is above 50 on the weekly chart, and this indicates an uptrend. The price has also hit EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100 on the weekly chart. The price might increase to form a triangular shape at 13620. The German economic performance is also an effect of the low interest rates. Mario Draghi's pledge on low interest rates hits euro and lifts bonds.

The most important data from this week:
October 24
Eurozone PMI (50.4 expectation); ( 50.1 previous)
ECB rate (-0.50% expectation); (-0.50 previous)
ECB Mario Draghi press conference

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The EUR/USD pair might fall in the medium-long term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The RSI oscillator remains below 50, and this is a clear sign of a downtrend. The price is also below EMA 20, EMA 50, and EMA 100, on the weekly chart. Even if this pair rises in the short term, it will enter into a medium-long term downtrend.
Possible Germany’s recession also sustains the EUR/USD downtrend. Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse and biggest economy may be entering a recession, according to a gloomy report from the country’s central bank. This could have repercussions for the rest of the eurozone and the United States.

The most important data of this week:

August 27
Germany GDP QoQ (-0.1% expectation); ( -0.1% previous)
YoY (0.4% expectation); ( 0.4% previous)
August 29
France GDP QoQ (0.2% expectation); ( 0.2% previous)
YoY (1.3% expectation); ( 1.3% previous)
Germany Unemployment Change (3.5k expectation); ( 1k previous)
Rate (5% expectation); ( 5% previous)
Germany CPI MoM (-0.1% expectation); (0.5% previous)
YoY (1.5% expectation); (1.7% previous)
US GDP QoQ (2% expectation); ( 2.1% previous)
August 30
Eurozone CPI YoY (1% expectation); ( -0.9% previous)
Italy GDP QoQ (0.00% expectation); (0.00% previous)
YoY (0.00% expectation); ( 0.00% previous)

The AUD/USD currency pair might rise in the medium term, according to our daily and weekly analysis. The pair is now at its highest level since September 25. The gains follow weak U.S. inflation data.
The MACD is into positive territory, and the price has already hit EMA 20 and EMA 50, on the daily chart. The stochastic oscillator might be on the rise, according to the weekly chart.

The fundamental data from this week:
October 15
RBA minutes
October 17
Australia Employment Change (15k expected); ( 34k previous)
Rate (5.3% expected); (5.3% previous)
RBA Governor Lowe speaks in Washington

The FTSE 100 Index might fall in the medium term, according to our technical and fundamental analysis. The MACD on the daily and weekly charts is negative. The price has already reached EMA 20, 50, and 100 on the weekly chart, and this is a signals for downtrend. A medium-term target for this pair is 6818 where is Fibo 0.50 on the daily chart.
Politics in the UK is likely to remain messy as we approach the Brexit deadline. The government, led by Boris Johnson, made it clear they aren’t willing to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement without the removal of the Irish backstop. On the other hand, European leaders made it clear the withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation.The Brexit uncertainty is likely to be a challenging time for the UK economy.

The most important data from this week:

August 13
UK Unemployment change (62k expectation); ( 28k previous)
UK Unemployment rate (3.8% expectation);( 3.8% previous)
August 14
UK CPI MoM (-0.1% expectation); (0.00% previous)
YoY (1.8% expectation); (1.8% previous)
UK PPI MoM (0.6% expectation); (-1.4% previous)
YoY (0.3% expectation); ( -0.3% previous)

The GBP/USD pair might rise in the medium term. The MACD Histogram may indicate a future uptrend for this pair, according to the daily chart. The stochastic oscillator may continue to rise in the medium term. According to the weekly chart, the uptrend RSI pattern is in the progress of getting completed.
The UK interest rates remain stable. The Bank of England has previously hinted that rates could start to increase soon, only to leave them unchanged. On the other hand, the United States lowered last month its interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, from 2% to an annual rate of 1.75%.

The most important data from this week:
October 7
U.S. Monthly Budget Statement
October 8
BOE Chairman Mark Carney speaks in Tokyo
FED Evens speaks in Chicago
FED Chairman Powell speaks in Denver
October 9
FED Chairman Powell speaks in Kansas
FOMC minutes
October 10
UK GDP 3 months (0.1% expectation); (0.00% previous)
MoM (0.00% expectation); (0.3% previous)
US CPI YoY (2.4% expectation); ( 2.4% previous)

The AUD/NZD pair might rise in the medium term, according to our technical analysis.The price has already hit EMA 20 on the daily chart, and the MACD is positive. A medium-term target for this pair might be 1.0679 where is Fibo 0.50 on the daily chart.The weekly chart also highlights future uptrend.This pair might rise to form a new bottom in the long term, as the weekly chart shows.
If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cuts the interest rate on Wednesday, it is negative for NZD.

The most important data of this week:
August 6
New Zealand Unemployment rate 2Q (4.3% expectation); ( 4.2% previous)
YoY (1.2% expectation); ( 1.3% previous)
RBA rate (1.00% expectation); (1.00% previous)
August 7
RBNZ rate (1.25% expectation); (1.5% previous)
August 8
RBA's Lowe Semi-Annual Testimony to Committee in Canberra